August Event: ROME: Day Ten

Well, that was a disappointing day. Fewer comments than players. You guys are ass at this. Except one or two of you.

Quickly again…I’m at work.

Beau (uberminz)
Dread Pirate (uberminz)
freealonzo (uberminz)
Geoff (freealonzo)
nibbish (Dread Pirate)
uberminz (Dread Pirate)

We have just five contenders who can get to the final two. Winning conditions will be updated tomorrow, probably.

Targets:

Beau
Dread Pirate
freealonzo

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42 thoughts on “August Event: ROME: Day Ten

  1. Hey Nibs if you had voted for Uber, then we could have done my vote for yourself strategy today, which meant that Geoff would have had to provide the sole kill vote and thus be eliminated. Geoff is still gunning for me, so I probably have one vote against me already. I won’t be providing the second.

  2. So, trying to do some maths here. The votes can go down like this, assuming nobody votes for themselves.

    4, 1, 0
    3, 1, 1
    3, 2, 0
    2, 2, 1

    So nibs and Geoff each have approximately a 33% chance of being in the majority tomorrow. Slightly less because they’re not in power. However, if scenario four happens, and Geoff and Nibs are both in the “2” group (and not voting for the same person), then it’ll be based on who sent their votes in last.

    So they have two options. They can both try to wait until 8:59 to send in their votes on the slight chance scenario 4 will happen, and hope random chance leaves them safe. Or they can join with one of the three in majority to oust somebody, leaving four people in the majority for the next day.

    I would like to get rid of Dread Pirate. I’m sure this plan would appeal to free, as even if he winds up safe tomorrow, there’s a decent chance he’d be in the majority anyway. If Geoff and Nibs come along, he’d be even safer than with random chance.

    Now, do Geoff and Nibs want to do this? If they agree to do this, then back out, they run the risk of both voting for the same person (me or free), then having Dread Pirate join them, putting them in an awful spot. Obviously, if they both voted for someone different, they’d be coming up roses, but that’s a 50/50 chance. And if they tried to communicate to each other that they’d vote someone different (e.g. Nibs would vote me while Geoff votes free), me and free would catch it. Then Free and I would have a choice: vote out Dread Pirate anyway and take our chances in a 50/50 battle tomorrow, or take our chances today in a 50/50 chance of who Dread Pirate picks tonight. I don’t trust Dread Pirate to pick one of us over the other (or tell the truth if he agrees to a plan).

    Geoff and Nibs best bet would be to agree to do it, then change their minds at the last minute, talking on here to intentionally split their vote.

    However, they have another option. They can go along with it, and then barter tomorrow to be in the top three. Now, Geoff is probably thinking this idea sucks, as he’d be the biggest target. To Nibbish and Free, it probably sounds more appealing.

    So here’s my offer: if we all get together and vote Dread Pirate, I will promise Geoff I will not vote for him tomorrow. I know that’s probably worth a grain of salt, but the last thing I want to do for future games is get on Geoff’s bad side. Nibs and Free would obviously not have that promise, but they could either barter with me tomorrow or they could join forces with Geoff to oust me.

  3. I think Geoff is going to continue to play hide and seek. Sure he could guess wrong and become vulnerable but he’s been pretty good thus far at avoiding becoming the majority. If Pirate is the target, the three of us could vote him out tonight and then do the vote for ourselves strategy the next day in order to eliminate Geoff. That would mean that 2 of the three of us would make the final two.

  4. I have read and I am taking your offer seriously Beau. But allow me to think out loud here.

    4, 1, 0
    3, 1, 1
    3, 2, 0
    2, 2, 1

    First I have 67% odds of not being in the majority – that is in my favor.

    Second on the 1/3 chance I am in majority – its less than a 25% chance (due to the in power tiebreakers) that I would be one of only 2 in the majority.

    So even if I go random and end up in the majority odds are good that I will be on a list with 2 or 3 other people and I would have to think at this late stage of the game people are playing to win over playing any personal or revenge targeting strategy. (But I could be wrong on that)

    I trust Beau with his promise not to vote for me. However for Beau’s idea to work – freealonzo (whom I do NOT trust) and Nibbish would have to go along with the idea as well and neither of them would be tied to any promise towards me.

    If I am on line with 67% I am assured final 3 and will have the opportunity to play the odds for final 2. If I am on the next target list – it will likely be with 2 or with all 3 remaining players and I am not convinced that I would be the certain next target.

    If I go with Beau’s plan – I am assured on the next target list and Beau is in control of the situation much more so than I am and i am at the mercy of a Freealonzo who appears to have me targeted.

  5. Lets consider another side to all of this. Of the 3 on the target list there is Beau – whom I trust but also know is attempting to both save himself and gain control of the game moving forward. Freealonzo whom I neither trust nor have any working relationship with and Dread Pirate with whom I have a long history of working with and trust.

    Of the 3 on the target list Dread Pirate is to me the person I would least like to see removed from the game moving forward.

    Alonzo keeps pushing this idea to all self vote and snuff me out – but so far he seen zero support for that idea. Its a solid (actually brilliant) plan but not one that I think people will accept at this late point in the game.

    I guess the point is this – I am 100% open to a plan for tonight’s vote – but someone is going to have to bring me a plan that is clearly better than my current odds with a random vote.

  6. For the record, I’m not trying to get Dread Pirate off. I’m obviously okay with anyone but me going. I just picked him because Free’s talking more strategy.

    I’d be open for free’s strategy if nibs were up for it, but I don’t see why nibs just wouldn’t agree to do it then vote for somebody else instead. He’d get the Dread Pirate kill and be guaranteed of a final three spot. Like he said, he cares more about winning than getting rid of Geoff. So, no to that plan for sure.

    Geoff, I understand your reservations, especially since the only one you outright trust is Dread Pirate. But if you play the random odds, and you’re in the final three with anyone but Dread Pirate, I think there’s a great chance the remaining two vote out you (unless you avoided the majority again tomorrow). Because of this, I’m willing to change the plan to vote out freealonzo if Dread Pirate’s on board, which may give you a better chance at swinging a vote if you’re in the majority.

    While the odds of you surviving a random roll tonight are about 67%, the chances of doing that again the next day are 75% if there’s four in majority, 67% if there’s 3 in majority, or 50% if there’s two in majority. That evens out to 67% chance tomorrow as well. But the odds of landing safe two days in a row by random chance is just 33%.

    So, do you want an approximately 33% chance to advance to the final three by random chance, or take your chances with me, Dread Pirate, and nibs tomorrow knowing that I’ve promised I won’t vote for you?

  7. When there are three people left:

    If one is in power (not particularly likely, but possible), that person will die automatically and the other two will be the winners.

    If two are in power, the third essentially has his choice of whom he’d like to face and can make the kill alone.

    If all three are in power, everyone votes, duh. This is probably all obvious besides the “one in power” thing. Maybe even that is.

    I have decided that whichever of you loses the one-off after this will not lose any points gained here. That would be a stupid waste, since that person isn’t getting their shot at the title, and it would actually make it a smart play to fall in third or fourth so as not to even have the chance to lose the points.

  8. I too would like to pursue any strategy that keeps me alive after tonight. The only reason I’ve been after Geoff is because, he’s been after me. I could work with Geoff if it meant I could live another day. Having said that… Geoff’s comments about he would rather work with Dread Pirate more than anyone has me concerned, especially as we are getting down to just a few votes. I say we split that potential partnership up and vote Pirate today.

    • The problem with that plan is that Geoff is not likely to vote for me (and I don’t see him “working” with me), so that you’ll be back at square one tomorrow.

      • This. Geoff doesn’t trust anyone any more than I do.

        Past games are past. Future games are future. We’re all playing for the same prize right now, and only two of us are going to make it there.

  9. Oh I agree about the former. I got to give Geoff a lot of credit about reading the votes right and staying safe. His game play has been brilliant. However, if it got down to three, I see him partnering with you over me, Nibs, or Beau.

    • Heh, Geoff’s got a history with me, but it was Survivor IX when I blindsided him at the end. He knows enough not to trust me, so I don’t think I’m any more likely to partner with him than anybody else.

      • I’m just going by this comment from Geoff:

        Beau – whom I trust but also know is attempting to both save himself and gain control of the game moving forward. Freealonzo whom I neither trust nor have any working relationship with and Dread Pirate with whom I have a long history of working with and trust.

        Of the 3 on the target list Dread Pirate is to me the person I would least like to see removed from the game moving forward.

  10. I am thinking out loud here.

    Known issues –

    #1 – Out of Dread Pirate, Freealonzo and Beau – 1 of you has to die

    #2 – The 2, 3 or 4 people who vote for the 1 who dies are on tomorrows target list meaning 1 or 2 people have a chance at guaranteeing themselves into the final 3.

    I’ve been playing all kinds of scenarios in my head and unless I just haven’t come up with the strategy yet – I just don’t see how I can align my vote for tonight AND keep myself off the next target list to guarantee I am in the final 3. Essentially either Nibbish or myself or both of us have to agree to be on the target list tomorrow in order to guarantee which 2 of you 3 stay for the final 4.

    I don’t trust any of the 3 of you to say you won’t vote for me tomorrow if I make an agreement to assure which 1 of the 3 of you go tonight.

    If I end up on the list tomorrow I will deal with that – but the odds (however slight) are in my favor to not be on list tomorrow and guarantee the final 3 – with a chance (again however slight) to pick my final 2 opponent.

  11. Well Nibs has said he’s leaning toward pure randomness and Geoff above will undoubtedly vote for someone who he thinks will keep him safe one more day. So I guess it’s up to us three to do the dirty deed.

    • I’m only favoring randomness because I can’t see a plan where someone:

      a) knows my vote and that fact favors me or…
      b) thinks they know my vote and doesn’t murder me when I get all backstabby

      It doesn’t pay to be the only person not voting one way if everyone else votes that way, but I just don’t have faith that that’s what’s happening.

      • Don’t get me wrong, I’m not blaming you — I’d probably do the same if I were you. Just pointing out where everyone stands.

  12. If I team up with free or DP: 100 percent chance alive tomorrow. 50 percent chance alive after that and even if I live, in majority again.

    If random: 67 percent alive tomorrow, 33 percent safe also.

    Yeah, everyone should go random.

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