August Event: ROME: Day Five

Another mod-kill today. Where did you go, AMR? You were so engaged before today.

The rest of the voting was pretty exciting, coming in at 4-3-2-2. So, we go to another tense day of four vulnerable people.

Beau (greekhouse)
bhiggum (uberminz)
daneekasghost (nibbish)
Dread Pirate (bhiggum)
freealonzo (bhiggum)
Geoff (bhiggum)
nibbish (nibbish)
Rhubarb_Runner (greekhouse)
todahshy (greekhouse)
uberminz (greekhouse)
greekhouse (uberminz)

Clearly, people were not willing to forgive greekhouse for part 5 of the Answer Goes Here challenge.

Your targets:

Beau
Rhubarb_Runner
todahshy
uberminz

Ten people left! Who wants to be Erik’s first challenger? Eh? Eh?

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33 thoughts on “August Event: ROME: Day Five

  1. With 4 targets and 10 voters there are 22 ways the vote can break down (this doesn’t include permutations for which 4 are voted for how many times – but simply 22 ways the 10 votes can be split 4 ways).

    Google Doc – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ar7UfYwKsGW4dEk1UWRfak1MZHNGWWNLMGdqbHpETFE&usp=sharing

    8/22 include all 4 getting at least 1 vote (which I think is likely)
    4/22 include a 2 way tie (including 2 of what I think are the 4 most expected breakdowns)
    1/22 includes a 3 way tie (included in what I think are the 4 most expected vote breakdowns)

    If you assume pure randomness (I don’t for this vote) its still 3/1 75% odds in favor of not ending up on the target list.

    However if you assume a likelihood that all 4 targets will get a vote then 4 of the 8 breakdowns include a tie meaning that the 4 target list votes will carry tie breaking weight.

    I think the highest probability is that the next death will be the result of either 3 or 4 of the 10 votes. That means instead of 75% odds to stay safe, its probably closer to 60% odds of staying safe (being one of the 6 votes that doesn’t vote for the “winner” who gets 4 votes.

    None of this helps me decide whom to vote for – but it does help all of you see how sick I am.

  2. Yeah I tried to reverse psychology this game and thought to myself greekhouse is the most active of the targets which would make him the most likely target which therefore would make people not vote for him so I will definitely be safe if I vote for him… woops.

    As it turns out with the breakdown of votes basically anyway I voted would have led to me being on the chopping block, that’s a pretty incredible random breakdown of votes this round.

  3. I am finding that the most entertaining things about this game are Geoff’s comments and everyone’s half-assed reasons for their semi-random votes.

    I approve. This makes for fun times.

  4. Beau’s been up an awful lot. Is most eliminations a part of still a tiebreaker or am I forgetting the rule here?

    • Let me spell – no, there is too much. Let me sum up:

      First tiebreaker: votes from those “in power.” Hence, those vulnerable.

      Second tiebreaker: the timing thing. With the first tiebreaker in play, it probably won’t come up.

      I would cheerfully consider other options for tiebreakers in the future (most times in power, for instance) but I didn’t say so beforehand, so no dice now. I’ll also be running through late-game scenarios soon so the potential final four or whatever knows what they’re doing. I may even have stumbled upon a way to create a single winner.

      I also think I have a plan for the championship matches. I’ll have a list of 15-20 challenges, and the champion chooses one. If he wins, he can’t choose it again. I do want the champion to have the upper hand, but this could greatly decrease the chances for the first challengers. So…talk to me.

      If we finish Rome with two winners – a possibility even if I institute my way of one winner – I’m going to make a list of 15-20 one-on-one challenges, which the two will rank 1-20. Highest ranked challenge between the two will be run.

  5. Pingback: “Fall, Caesar” Sample Game | Fall, Caesar

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